約翰·泰勒(John Brian Taylor,1946－)：當代最知名的經濟學家之一。
約翰·泰勒（John Brian Taylor）出生於1946年12月8日，是美國斯坦福大學教授，胡佛研究所高級研究員；當代最知名的經濟學家之一，《巨集觀經濟手冊》的主編。同時，泰勒教授也是最重視經濟學原理教學的學者之一，他多年來堅持在斯坦福大學為本科生開設的經濟學原理課程在全美享有盛譽。
John Brian Taylor (born December 8, 1946) is an economics professor at Stanford University.
Born in Yonkers, New York, he earned his A.B. from Princeton University in 1968 (obtained an education deferment) and Ph.D. from Stanford in 1973, both in economics. He taught at Columbia University
from 1973–1980 and the Woodrow Wilson School of Princeton from 1980–1984 before returning to Stanford. He has received several teaching prizes and currently teaches Stanford's introductory economics course. Taylor is mentioned as a potential recipient of the 2009 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
An expert on monetary policy, in a 1993 paper he proposed the Taylor rule, which provides a guide to central banks on how to determine interest rates. He has also been active in politics, serving as the Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during the first term of the Bush Administration. He was also a member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers during the Ford and George H. W. Bush administrations.
Taylor contributed to the development of mathematical methods for solving macroeconomic models under the assumption of rational expectations. In 1977, Taylor and Edmund Phelps, simultaneously with Stanley Fischer, showed that monetary policy is useful for stabilizing the economy if wages are sticky, even when all workers and firms have rational expectations. This demonstrated that some of the earlier insights of Keynesian economics remained true under rational expectations. This was important because Thomas Sargent
and Neil Wallace had argued that rational expectations would make macroeconomic policy useless for stabilization; the results of Taylor, Phelps, and Fischer showed that Sargent and Wallace's crucial assumption was not rational expectations, but perfectly flexible prices.
Taylor's model of overlapping wage contracts became one of the building blocks of the New Keynesian macroeconomics that rebuilt much of the traditional IS-LM model on rational expectations microfoundations. The New Keynesian economists went on to explore what types of monetary policy rules would most effectively reduce the societal costs of business cycle fluctuations: should central banks try to control the money supply, the price level, or the interest rate; and should these instruments react to changes in output, unemployment, asset prices, or inflation rates? Taylor's 1993 paper in the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series proposed that a simple and effective central bank policy would manipulate short-term interest rates, raising rates to cool the economy whenever inflation or output growth becomes excessive, and lowering rates when either one falls too low. Taylor's interest rate equation has come to be known as the Taylor rule, and it is now widely accepted as an effective formula for monetary decision making. Some empirical estimates indicate that many central banks today act approximately as the Taylor rule prescribes, but had failed to act according to the Taylor rule during the inflationary spiral of the 1970s.
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 危機“良醫”最有望奪魁
- ↑ "Thomson Reuters predicts the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences", Thomson Reuters, September 25, 2009
- ↑ Blanchard, Olivier (2000), Macroeconomics, 2nd ed., Ch. 28, p. 543. Prentice Hall, ISBN 013013306X.
- ↑ Clarida, Richard; Mark Gertler; and Jordi Galí (2000), 'Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: theory and some evidence.' Quarterly Journal of Economics 115. pp. 147-180.